AI Impact on Immigration & Expat Work Assignments

Artificial intelligence is no longer a future concept as it is a present-day economic force reshaping industries across North America and globally. The AI impact on immigration is expected to be significant, affecting jobs and even expats.

From legal research and accounting to software development, marketing, logistics, and even healthcare, AI-driven automation is accelerating productivity while disrupting traditional employment models.

It is quite clear why economists think AI could cause the biggest labour market disruption since the Industrial Revolution. We have written this article to explain why we think that Artificial Intelligence will increase demand for lower immigration and work visas, limiting global employers’ ability to import and export valuable expat talent worldwide.

Recent Influential Article on AI & the Job Market

The recent article by Citrini and Alap Shah, entitled “THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS,” shocked the stock market and corporate elites. The article outlines a scenario in which rapid technological disruption undermines employment, weakens consumer demand, and exposes structural fragilities in global economies. It argues that rising productivity alone cannot sustain growth if income distribution deteriorates, potentially leading to market volatility, recessionary pressure, and significant policy and political consequences.

This kind of influential commentary reflects the degree to which investors, policymakers, and corporate leaders are thinking differently about the long-term role of international talent flows.

Whether or not the most extreme outcomes come to pass, it is clear that sentiment — not just fundamentals — is shifting. You can read the article here: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

As governments assess the economic and political implications of job displacement, an important question is emerging:

Will countries like the United States and Canada, as well as nation-states abroad, reduce immigration and work visa programs as domestic job markets tighten due to AI-driven change? Immigration policies were already tightening in the USA, Canada, UK and Australia. One can assume this will continue as the job market is impacted by AI.

The Economic Reality: Productivity vs. Employment

Historically, immigration policy in countries such as the United States and Canada has been tied closely to labour shortages. Skilled worker programs, intra-company transfer visas, and temporary foreign worker programs were designed to fill gaps in talent where domestic supply was insufficient.

However, AI is altering that equation for global employers. And when unemployment goes up, support for immigration and even expat worker immigration is reduced.

If artificial intelligence systems can perform tasks previously handled by mid-level professionals, whether in technology, finance, administration, engineering or analysis. It is clear that the demand for certain categories of skilled labour may soften. This does not eliminate the need for human expertise and expat assignments, but it may reduce the volume of foreign worker intake in specific sectors.

We would expect that this will not necessarily impact expat employers in the mining and resource sector as much, as global mining will still be a critical sector supporting the AI industry, which is very resource-intensive, including rare earths, power, and the like.

Governments facing domestic political pressure to protect jobs could respond by:

Tightening skilled work visa quotas
Increasing labour market testing requirements
Prioritizing citizens and permanent residents
Limiting visa renewals in vulnerable sectors
Adjusting wage thresholds upward

As noted in many media outlets, we are already seeing more rigorous scrutiny in visa adjudication in the U.S. and evolving labour policies in Canada. AI-driven labour displacement may further accelerate these trends. We may also see some countries, especially the USA, move to deport or restrict visas for foreign nationals.

The Political Dimension of Expat and Foreign Worker Assignments

The AI impact on immigration is becoming part of the political debate as governments consider how automation may affect domestic employment. Immigration has always been politically sensitive. During periods of economic uncertainty, voters often expect governments to prioritize domestic employment.

If AI adoption results in visible layoffs in white-collar industries — technology, consulting, financial services, media — policymakers may face increased pressure to reduce inflows of foreign workers, even in traditionally high-skill categories.

Canada, long seen as one of the most immigration-friendly countries in the world, has already begun recalibrating temporary resident targets. The United States continues to face visa backlogs, adjudication complexity, and policy volatility across administrations.

The next decade may bring:

More selective, skills-focused immigration models
Sector-specific visa prioritization
Shorter visa & expat assignment durations
Increased compliance oversight

For multinational companies, this creates uncertainty in workforce planning.

Expat Assignments May Become More Selective

When the impact of AI really takes off and reaches countries outside North America, we may see a shift toward highly targeted immigration, focusing on people whose skills complement AI. Likely priority groups include:

AI engineers and scientists
Healthcare workers
Advanced technical workers
Aid Workers
Security Staff
Skilled trades
Infrastructure workers
Skilled engineers, especially in energy and mining

The Corporate Challenge: Global Mobility in an AI Era

Companies operating internationally must now balance three forces:

1. Automation and AI adoption
2. Domestic workforce sensitivity
3. Continued need for specialized global talent

Even if overall visa quotas tighten, certain roles will remain highly mobile — executive leadership, highly specialized technical experts, critical operations personnel, and intra-company transfers.

In fact, as AI transforms operations, companies may rely even more on strategic cross-border talent to oversee implementation, governance, cybersecurity, compliance, and AI risk management.

The issue is not whether global mobility will disappear — it won’t.

The issue is that it may become more complex, more regulated, and more strategically scrutinized.

Risk Exposure Increases as Immigration Scrutiny Grows

When governments tighten immigration programs, they often simultaneously increase compliance enforcement. This can include:

Proof of benefits equivalency
Evidence of health coverage compliance
Local regulatory insurance requirements
Worker protection standards
Documentation audits

For companies sending employees to the United States or bringing expatriates into Canada, benefit design and insurance compliance become even more important.

Health insurance, disability coverage, evacuation benefits, and local compliance standards must align with both immigration requirements and corporate duty-of-care obligations.

In a tighter visa environment, mistakes become costly.

Strategic Planning Is Now Essential for Expats and International Employers

Forward-looking companies that employ expatriates should be asking:

How exposed are we to changes in visa policy?
Are we overly dependent on specific visa categories?
Are our global benefit plans compliant in both sending and receiving jurisdictions?
Are we prepared for stricter labour scrutiny?
Do we have flexible insurance structures that can adapt quickly?

Immigration volatility, combined with AI-driven disruption in expatriate labour, means global mobility strategies must now be proactive — not reactive.

How TFG Global Insurance Solutions Ltd. Can Help

Again, at least for our clients and book of business, we don’t think AI will have a huge impact on expat assignments. Some clients will send more employees abroad, while others will send fewer, depending on the industry. As policies evolve in countries such as the United States and Canada, companies must ensure their expatriate benefit structures remain compliant, competitive, and aligned with corporate risk management.

TFG Global Insurance Solutions Ltd. specializes in sourcing, structuring, and managing international benefit plans for multinational employers, NGOs, and globally mobile workforces.

Our firm is an expert in assisting companies with:

International health insurance plans for employees being sent to the USA
Global medical and evacuation coverage for expatriates entering Canada
Disability, life, and AD&D solutions for cross-border assignments
Compliance-conscious benefit structures aligned with immigration requirements
Ongoing servicing and claims advocacy

In an era where immigration frameworks may tighten and compliance scrutiny may increase, having the right global benefits partner is critical.

Looking ahead, the AI impact on immigration will likely shape how governments design visa programs and regulate global talent mobility. AI may reshape both domestic and expat labour markets. Immigration policies may adjust. But global business will continue, and we foresee that companies will still need to send employees abroad to take a hands-on approach to global operations. Of course, companies that plan strategically will remain competitive.

Written by David Tompkins, President of TFG Global, who has extensive experience in global insurance matters, global mobility and duty of care.